Genuine Hype

1. Hamas has apparently accepted an Egyptian proposal for a week-long ceasefire with Israel and the reinstating of the 2005 agreement which placed Palestinian Authority forces on the border with Egypt under the supervision of European monitors. Acceptance of the proposal is apparently conditioned on the immediate withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and other unspecified amendments. Hamas officials in Lebanon have indicated that the proposal still requires clarification.

2. Israel has not yet responded to the latest ceasefire proposal. Israel has demanded the end to all rocket and mortar fire from Gaza into Israel, the end of all weapons smuggling to Hamas, and the return of Gilad Shalit.

3. Israel ground operations in Gaza remain at a medium tempo. Israeli forces are operating in parts of Gaza City and other urban areas. A suicide bomber who approached Israeli forces was killed before he detonated his charge. Israel air attacks continue on smuggling tunnels, arms caches, and Hamas and other operatives firing rockets. Several Israeli soldiers were wounded. Palestinian fatalities are close to 1,000.

4. Hamas operatives continue to engage Israeli ground forces in small groups, with long-range sniping and anti-tank rockets, and with booby traps. Israeli officials have expressed surprise that Hamas continues to reserve large numbers of forces rather than undertake larger engagements. Fewer than expected Hamas prisoners have been taken.

5. Virtually all Hamas installations have been destroyed. Hamas senior leaders remain in hiding. Hamas’ command and control capabilities have been reduced but there are few signs of operatives abandoning the fight, defecting, or that the Gazan public has rejected the organization. But Hamas has forbidden the release of the names of operatives killed in combat with Israel.

6. Israeli officials released a video of a large caliber anti-aircraft cannon stored in a mosque. A report in a Gaza newspaper also indicates that children are being used as messengers by Hamas.

7. Approximately five Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel. Several fell short and landed in Lebanon. Israeli forces responded with artillery. Hezbollah again denied responsibility for the attack. Some analysts believe that Hezbollah may now feel compelled to begin continuous rocket attacks to support Hamas but below a level that would trigger a major Israeli reaction.

8. Hamas continues to fire mortars and rockets into Israel. Several long-range rockets struck Beersheva and Yavne. Almost 600 rockets have been fired since the beginning of Operation Cast Lead, over 10% of which were Grad (Katyusha) rockets with a 40 kilometer range. Israeli estimates suggest that over 100 long-range rockets may remain in Hamas stockpiles.

9. Israeli forces observed a three-hour pause in combat operations to permit humanitarian supplies – thousands of tons and more than 100 trucks – to be moved into Gaza. Olmert designated Minister Herzog to coordinate all humanitarian aid to Gaza.

10. Splits have emerged between Israeli leaders regarding the continuation of combat operations in Gaza. Defense Minister Ehud Barak has indicated Israel should immediately seek a ceasefire. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni indicates that Israeli operations should cease unilaterally since this would reinforce Israeli deterrence. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has indicated that operations should continue. Unnamed Israeli military and diplomatic officials suggest this split gives the impression of weakness to Hamas.

Around The World

1. An Iranian ship allegedly bearing humanitarian aid was again intercepted and turned away by Israeli naval forces.

2. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon met with Egyptian officials and called for Israel and Hamas to undertake a ceasefire.

3. Egyptian President Mubarak and chief of the intelligence service Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman returned to Cairo after briefing Saudi king Abdullah, who has now called for an Arab League meeting. In a challenge to Saudi Arabia, Qatar has also called for an Arab summit. Abdullah has also publicly expressed support for Egyptian ceasefire efforts.

4. Syrian President Bashar Assad called on Israel to halt operations in Gaza, alleging that “It’s planting the seeds for extremism and terror in the entire region.” He supported calls for a ceasefire that would include the end to weapons smuggling but indicated that this should be part of a “comprehensive solution” to the Middle East.

5. A diplomatic spat has emerged between Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and US Secretary of State Rice. Olmert stated publicly that he had convinced President Bush to abstain from voting on last week’s UN Security Council Resolution 1860 and that Secretary of State Rice had been embarrassed by this. State Department officials have angrily denied Olmert’s account.

6. Reports indicate that Hamas is expecting President-elect Barack Obama to call for an immediate ceasefire when he takes office on 20 January. Israeli officials privately express the same concern. The incoming Obama administration’s public position regarding the requirement that Hamas recognize Israel, renounce violence, and abide by existing agreements as preconditions remains unchanged.

7. In confirmation hearings, incoming Secretary of State Hilary Clinton indicated that no negotiations would be held with Hamas. She promised a new strategy of engagement toward Iran and Syria.

8. Bolivian President Morales has announced that his country is severing diplomatic ties with Israel. He called for Israeli leaders to be tried for ‘genocide.’ Venezuela, which expelled its Israeli ambassador last week, has asked that a temporary representative be returned.

9. Israel and the European Union have mutually agreed to temporarily suspend talks on upgrading relations.

10. A recorded voice message apparently from Osama Bin Laden has urged Muslims to undertake jihad to stop Israeli operations in Gaza.

11. Anti-Israel/antisemitic protests and attacks on Jews and Jewish institutions continue worldwide. A synagogue in Brussels was firebombed. A guard outside a Berlin synagogue was attacked. Dutch Muslims have announced a boycott of ‘pro-Israel’ shops. In Calgary Neo-Nazis and Muslims held a joint protest against Israel.

12. The student union at the University of London School of Oriental and African Studies voted to ban a public lecture series by Israeli speakers. The series is continuing.
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